Due to the weakening of downstream domestic demand of polyurethane, the import volume of isocyanate products in the upstream has declined significantly. According to the analysis of the Buy Chemical Plastic Research Institute, with the increase of the maintenance plan of the domestic TDI device in the third quarter, the domestic supply side will promote the market to improve.
According to customs data, China imported 660 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI) in May 2024. The import amount was US $1,195,500, with an average price of US $1,811 / ton, the import volume decreased by 73.63% compared with the previous month and 46.53% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, China exported 26,000 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI), with an export value of $45.9579 million, with an average price of $1,767 / ton. Exports increased 7.22% from the previous month and 8.10% from the same period last year. Export data picked up in May, and export volume rose to varying degrees with and from the previous month.
China demand is weak and exports are hampered
From the market point of view in the first half of this year, the domestic demand market is relatively weak. In May and June, the sales volume of production enterprises shrank to varying degrees. In addition to weak domestic demand, the first half of the TDI export market also shrank, of which January to April exports are less than 25,000 tons. According to the latest data show, although exports pick up in May, However, the export volume for the entire January-May period was much lower than the same period last year (in January-May 2024, China exported a total of 119,600 tons of TDI, 23.7% less than the same period in 2023).
The bidirectional weak state of internal and external demand, combined with high production in the second quarter, caused TDI inventory accumulation. At present, the domestic TDI price of 14000-14200 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods 14300-14500 yuan/ton, the current price compared with the same period last year fell 2000 yuan/ton.
The third quarter is expected to pick up
According to current understanding, Gansu Yinguang 150,000 tons of equipment in July maintenance plan, maintenance cycle of about 40 days; Wanhua (Yantai) 300,000 tons of equipment in July maintenance plan, maintenance cycle of about 30 days; Wanhua (Xinjiang) 150,000 tons of equipment in August maintenance plan. The maintenance of TDI in the third quarter is expected to increase, the output is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, the oversupply pressure or ease, and the accumulation of social inventory is expected to slow down. At the same time, the downstream demand in the third quarter turned from the off-season to the peak season, consumption or increase, and the internal demand market is expected to improve.
Post time: Jul-11-2024